Or, why I am not excited about fusion power…<\/p>\n
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I should preface by saying that I remain unconvinced that controlled fusion energy is possible or, if it proves so, economical. \u00a0The last time I read about all of the investment money going into fusion research, however, I found myself wondering whether success would actually be a good thing.<\/p>\n
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We live in a time when the human race is about to become reacquainted with limits. \u00a0Limits to energy, to phosphorus, to water availability, to arable land. \u00a0Energy is, above all, the driving factor. \u00a0With unlimited energy, we could extract phosphorus from seawater, desalinate billions of gallons and pump it to the deserts, even produce food in giant vats filled with synthetic nutrients. \u00a0We could industrialize the shit out of this planet. \u00a0We could, in just a few centuries, find ourselves living on Coruscant, the city-planet at the center of the Star Wars universe. \u00a0And would we? \u00a0You bet.<\/p>\n
It would begin with fanfare. \u00a0Fusion power would be announced as a grand breakthrough, a gateway to a limitless future. \u00a0In desert regions facing water and food shortages, we would install desalination plants and synthetic food factories. \u00a0Success! \u00a0Millions of lives saved, thanks to fusion. \u00a0Within one generation, we would pass a point of no return. \u00a0From that point on we would be incapable of sustaining human civilization with energy from the Sun or fossil fuels. \u00a0As synthetic food became cheaper and more refined, it would be accepted and farming would become quaint and old-fashioned – an inefficient waste of land and topsoil. \u00a0Millions of acres would be restored to prairie and forest, and wildlife would flourish. \u00a0For perhaps 100 years the human race would live in an age of abundance. \u00a0The human population would boom, doubling to 15 billion, 30 billion, 60 billion over that time.<\/p>\n
Then the problems would begin. \u00a0Land that was once farmland, then restored, would become subdivisions. \u00a0Cities would expand and merge. \u00a0As the functioning of the biosphere sputtered and failed, we would replace natural functions with synthetic ones. \u00a0Imagine huge machines the size of small towns consuming terawatts of electricity, filtering carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and splitting it into oxygen and carbon, returning the oxygen to the air and feeding pure carbon into synthetic food factories. \u00a0Remaining natural areas would be overrun with tourists, and wilderness would become a concept of the past. \u00a0As energy use grew exponentially, the sheer heat output would warm the planet even with no greenhouse effect, and we would be forced to dim the sun, spewing reflective smoke into the high atmosphere, to keep the planet cool. \u00a0As land grew scarce, cities would expand upward, leading to a world in which our great-great-grandchildren lived and died under artificial light, eating artificial food, and breathing artificial air.<\/p>\n
It is easy to imagine a world in which we replace dirty oil and coal with clean fusion, in which energy is abundant and everyone can live in a five-bedroom house with digital controls and flat-screen TVs in every room. \u00a0Unlimited energy could get us there. \u00a0It is also true, however, that with current levels of available energy we could provide the same level of abundance – if only we had one billion humans rather than 7 billion. \u00a0We, as a species, have not shown an ability to match our population with our resources to maintain abundance. \u00a0Instead, we reproduce to the point of scarcity, then depend on technology to push the limits higher, restore abundance, and keep growing.<\/p>\n
My generation is already facing scarcity. \u00a0Oil production has peaked, and we are living in a time when available energy per capita is decreasing. \u00a0Wind and solar are growing exponentially, but it seems likely that this will not keep pace with fossil fuel depletion in a world with a growing population. \u00a0Wallets will grow lighter and bellies will be empty. \u00a0Like most, I would love to see fusion arrive on the scene and evaporate these limits. \u00a0But when I project this forward, I can only see a world that I would not wish to live in.<\/p>\n
Homo sapiens<\/em>\u00a0is not yet ready for fusion power. \u00a0Before we harness the power of the stars, we need to build a collective wisdom: \u00a0establish a desired human population size and devise incentives to maintain it, abandon our winner-take-all mentality in favor of “gross national happiness” and equitable resource distribution, and accept our responsibilities to the biosphere that has existed for billions of years prior to our arrival and has every right to continue for another billion years or more. \u00a0Unless and until that happens, I can only hope that unlimited fusion energy remains a dream for the future, and that my generation continues the tumultuous journey from an age of abundance to an age of limits.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Or, why I am not excited about fusion power… I should preface by saying that I remain unconvinced that controlled fusion energy is possible or, if it proves so, economical. \u00a0The last time I read about all of the … Continue reading